St. Louis 2009 Population Estimate 2:22 PM

The Census just released July 1, 2009 population estimates. These will be the last estimates before the official count of the 2010 Census.

Here is the breakdown of the three core counties (plus St. Louis City) on the Missouri side:

Click to expand

If the table is too small, or if you'd like to see more counties, please visit the Census website.

As you can see, the Census estimates that St. Louis City declined every so slightly from its July 1, 2008 population--a loss of 143 people. The current figure--356,587--is still significantly above the 2000 population of 348,189. This is probably a good sign in a city that has been shedding people for a half century.

If I were to guess what the April 1, 2010 Census base estimate for St. Louis will be, I'd go with a number right around the 2009 figure. With the recession and the difficulty moving residential units during the economic crisis, I doubt St. Louis has seen much more growth. Look for a figure of 357,000 at the highest. For what it's worth.

Continued, though slowed, growth in St. Charles County likely means that the 2010 Census will show that county overtake St. Louis City as the region's second most populous "county".

City Population Increases/Decreases by ZIP Code 12:51 AM

According to a new study of St. Louis Public Schools by the National Association of Charter School Authorizers (NACSA), St. Louis's population change from 2000-2008 shows a city with fewer school-aged children (an 8.4% decline), yet slightly more residents overall.

How does it break down by ZIP code (click here for a map of St. Louis ZIPs, or refer to my neighborhood listings behind each ZIP)?

2008 Population / Increase or Decline from 2000 / North Side (NS), South Side (SS), or Central Corridor (CC)

• 63101-02-03 (Downtown, Midtown): 7,200 / 11.6% / CC
• 63104 (Soulard, Lafayette Square, Benton Park): 21,000 / 5.9% / SS
• 63108 (Central West End): 20,700 / 5.2% / CC
• 63109 (St. Louis Hills, Southampton): 31,900 / 4.5% / SS
• 63139 (Dogtown, Lindenwood): 28,000 / 4.5% / SS
• 63116 (Tower Grove South, Bevo): 51,500 / 3.7% / SS
• 63112 (Skinker-DeBaliviere, West End): 22,800 / 3.3% / CC
• 63120 (Mark Twain, Walnut Park): 16,200 / Stable / NS
• 63147 (Baden, Northpointe, North Riverfront): 15,200 / Stable / NS
• 63106 (Old North St. Louis): 11,100 / -1.0% / NS
• 63110 (Forest Park Southeast, Shaw): 20,700 / -1.7% / CC, SS
• 63115 (The Ville): 24,700 / -2.6% / NS
• 63111 (Carondelet, the Patch): 20,400 / -3.6% / SS
• 63113 (Academy, Fountain Park): 17,200 / -3.9% / NS
• 63107 (Hyde Park, O'Fallon): 14,100 / -6.7% / NS
• 63118 (Benton Park West, Gravois Park): 27,800 / -7.0% / SS

Keep in mind that the population figure used for the City of St. Louis in 2008 -- 350,400 -- is lower than the Census's July 1, 2008 figure of 354,361, which is itself currently under challenge and will likely be revised upward. Still, it is interesting to get a sense of which neighborhoods may be gaining population and which may be losing. While I didn't present the school-age children numbers, they are perhaps suggestive of a yuppifying city somewhat swiftly losing families in favor of smaller households.

354,361 10:38 AM

That's the number of people St. Louis was said to have by the U.S. Census Bureau's July 1, 2008 estimates. This is down from 355,663 in July 1, 2007.

But as today's Post-Dispatch article mentions, the city has successfully challenged annual Census estimates since 2003, all having been revised upward by several thousand people.

Will Mayor Slay challenge this number? What do you think it will be revised to? What's your anecdotal sense of the state of growth/decline in the city? How important is a higher population for the City of St. Louis?

We're #52: thanks, P-D! 8:21 PM

Why does the Post-Dispatch dwell on population figures that will likely be challenged and reversed as has happened for the past six years in a row? At least the article was good enough to mention that fact.

Why not entitle the article "Census says #52; city prepared to challenge" if they wanted to stay the least bit neutral? Better yet, why not be outright optimistic and entitle the article "St. Louis's Census slide likely in error".

Now the STL Today forums are abuzz with the talk of the imminent demise of the city.

Yikes.